The country’s sugar production is set to exceed domestic consumption for the third consecutive year in 2012-13 season starting October. This is despite a lower crop in Maharashtra and Karnataka, where dry spells triggered by poor rain in early part of the monsoon, hurt the standing cane crop.
The loss in these two States, which contributed to around 45 per cent of the country’s total output, is largely made up by Uttar Pradesh, where farmers – buoyed by higher returns last year – have planted cane on an additional area of 2.2 lakh hectares.
Moreover, the sharp decline in cane arrears has aided the trend. The overall cane acreage is higher by 4.5 per cent at 52.88 lakh hectares than last year’s 50.63 lakh hectares. Though the rains have recovered in late August, the damage triggered by dry spells is unlikely to be neutralized.
Despite a decline in output, the industry expects the surplus for exports to be around 1.5 million tonnes against 4 million tonnes last year. The higher surplus coupled with rise in output kept Indian exporters active in the global markets, with shipments touching about 3.5 million during 2011-12 season.
The opening balance at the beginning of 2012-13 season is pegged at 6 million tonnes, marginally lower than last year’s 5.5 million tonnes. The third successive year, where production has been higher than consumption, points towards a stabilizing trend in the sugar industry.
The bullish trend in sugar prices, which the millers are comfortable with should possibly help them break the cycle. The uncertainty in Maharashtra crop sparked a rally in prices, which are now in the Rs 33-35 a kg at the ex-factory level, against Rs 28-29 the previous year. The prices are expected to remain firm going forward on strong demand, which is growing over 2.2 per cent annually.
The consumption in 2011-12 is estimated at 22 million tonnes. The firm trend should augur well for millers helping them pare their losses. In Maharashtra, the output according to ISMA’s estimates is at 6.5 million tonnes, down from 8.95 million tonnes last year.
The dry spells did force the farmers to divert cane to fodder and ISMA estimates that up to 3.5 million tonnes cane was diverted to fodder since May. The cane area reported by the State stood at 9.04 lakh hectares in August (10.25 lakh hectares).
In Karnataka, ISMA estimates a 21 per cent decline in output at 3 million tonnes (3.8 million tonnes). The cane area in the State has dropped by 2 per cent and the sugar recovery will be hit as scanty rain has affected the crop.
However, production in Uttar Pradesh is expected to be 13.27 per cent higher at 7.9 million tonnes on good rains helping yields and recovery.
UP produced 6.97 lakh tonnes of the sweetener last year. Meanwhile, in Andhra Pradesh, sugarcane area will be 10-20 per cent lower than the normal area of 2 lakh hectares. Multiple factors have led to this situation.
While farmers in some areas shifted to maize and soya, those in the delta area feel that the cane coverage could be 75 per cent of the normal area.
Source: Hindu Business line
September 15, 2012
September 14, 2012
Index Numbers of wholesale Prices in India (Base: 2004-05=100) Review for the Month of August, 2012
The official Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2004-05 = 100) for the month August, 2012 rose by 1.1 percent to 166.6 (Provisional) from 164.8 (Provisional) for the previous month.
INFLATION
The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 7.55% (Provisional) for the month of August, 2012 (over August, 2011) as compared to 6.87% (Provisional) for the previous month and 9.78% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 3.48% compared to a build up of 3.61% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The movement of the index for the various commodity groups is summarized below:-
PRIMARY ARTICLES (Weight 20.12%)
The index for this major group rose by 0.3 percent to 219.5 (Provisional) from 218.8 (Provisional) for the previous month. The groups and items for which the index showed variations during the month are as follows:-
The index for `Food Articles` group declined by 0.4 percent to 211.4 (Provisional) from 212.2 (Provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of fruits & vegetables (5%), poultry chicken (4%), fish-marine (2%) and milk (1%). However, the prices of arhar (8%), ragi(7%), gram and urad (6% each), moong, coffee and wheat (5% each), bajra, condiments & spices and masur (4% each), egg, tea and fish-inland (3% each), jowar, maize and rice (2 % each) and mutton and barley (1% each) moved up.
The index for `Non-Food Articles` group rose by 3.8 percent to 206.8 (Provisional) from 199.2 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of castor seed (15%), raw silk (14%), gingelly seed (12%), coir fibre (11%), rape & mustard seed (9%), cotton seed and linseed (7% each), niger seed and flowers (6%), soyabean (5%), fodder, groundnut seed and sugarcane (4% each), guar seed, logs & timber and raw cotton (3% each), raw jute (2%) and sunflower (1%). However, the prices of raw rubber (6%), copra (coconut) and mesta (2% each) declined.
The index for `Minerals` group declined by 1.3 percent to 331.3 (Provisional) from 335.8 (Provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of sillimanite (13%), copper ore (9%), magnesite (7%), zinc concentrate and crude petroleum (3% each), steatite (2%) andchromite (1%). However, the prices of phosphorite (23%), iron ore (4 %) and barytes (1%) moved up.
FUEL & POWER (Weight 14.91%)
The index for this major group rose by 3.1 percent to 181.0 (Provisional) from 175.5 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of electricity (agricultural) (23%), electricity (industry) (11%), electricity (domestic) (9 %), electricity (railway traction) (8%), light diesel oil (7%), electricity (commercial) and naphtha (6%each), aviation turbine fuel (5%), furnace oil (4%), kerosene (2%) and petrol (1%).
MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS (Weight 64.97%)
The index for this major group rose by 0.8 percent to 146.9 (Provisional) from 145.7 (Provisional) for the previous month. The groups and items for which the index showed variations during the month are as follows:-
The index for `Food Products` group rose by 3.0 percent to 164.5 (Provisional) from 159.7 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of sugar (8%), oil cakes and gur (6% each), gram powder (besan), sooji (rawa) and gingelly oil (5% each), wheat flour (atta),khandsari and cotton seed oil (4% each), tea dust (unblended) and maida (3% each), mustard & rapeseed oil, vanaspati and mixed spices (2% each) and gola (cattle feed), groundnut oil, soyabean oil, bakery products, processed prawn and ghee (1% each). However, the prices of tea leaf (unblended) (1%) declined.
The index for `Textiles` group rose by 0.2 percent to 130.4 (Provisional) from 130.1 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of man-made fibre, jute yarn and cotton fabric (1% each).
The index for `Wood & Wood Products` group rose by 0.3 percent to 169.6 (Provisional) from 169.1 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of processed wood (1%).
The index for `Paper & Paper Products` group rose by 0.5 percent to 135.2 (Provisional) from 134.5 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of paper cartons / boxes (6%), newspaper (2%) and paper rolls (1%). However, the prices of computer stationery (2%) and newsprint (1%) declined.
The index for `Leather & Leather Products` group rose by 0.4 percent to 134.2 (Provisional) from 133.7 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of leathers (1%).
The index for `Rubber & Plastic Products` group rose by 0.7 percent to 136.9 (Provisional) from 135.9 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of plastic products and rubber products (1% each).
The index for `Chemicals & Chemical Products` group rose by 0.6 percent to 143.2 (Provisional) from 142.3 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of di ammonium phosphate (3%), pigment & pigment intermediates and organic manure (2% each) and synthetic resin, paints, non-cyclic compound, basic organic chemicals, adhesive & gum, ammonium sulphate, basic inorganic chemicals, safety matches/ match box and antibiotics (1% each). However, the prices of rubber chemicals and distemper (2% each) and polymers (1%) declined.
The index for `Non-Metallic Mineral Products` group rose by 1.1 percent to 164.2 (Provisional) from 162.4 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of railway sleeper (3%), grey cement (2%) and white cement and polished granite (1% each). However, the prices of glass bottles & bottleware (1%) declined.
The index for `Basic Metals, Alloys & Metal Products` group rose by 0.1 percent to 166.6 (Provisional) from 166.4 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of gold & gold ornaments (3%), ferro chrome (2%) and nuts/bolts/screw/ washers, steel: pipes & tubes, ferro manganese, zinc and aluminium (1% each). However, the prices of sponge iron (3%), pencil ingots (2%) and wire rods, melting scrap, gp/gc sheets, pig iron, copper products (other than wire) and rounds (1% each) declined.
The index for `Machinery & Machine Tools` group rose by 0.2 percent to 128.1 (Provisional) from 127.9 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of conductor (6%), lamps, fans and material handling equipments (3% each), harvester, ups / stabilizer, fibre optic cable and electric switches (2% each) and insulators, electrical wires, electric switch gears, air conditioner & refrigerators, capacitors, thresher and plastic machinery (1 % each).
The index for `Transport, Equipment & Parts` group rose by 0.6 percent to 129.3 (Provisional) from 128.5 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of auto rickshaw / tempo / matador (3%), tractors (2%) and parts of ships/boats etc., bus / mini bus / truck and motor cycle / scooter / moped (1% each).
FINAL INDEX FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE , 2012 (BASE YEAR: 2004-05=100)
For the month of June, 2012, the final Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2004-05=100) stood at 164.7as comparedto 164.2 (provisional) and annual rate of inflation based on final index stood at 7.58 percent as compared to 7.25 percent respectively as reported on 16.07.2012.
INFLATION
The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 7.55% (Provisional) for the month of August, 2012 (over August, 2011) as compared to 6.87% (Provisional) for the previous month and 9.78% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 3.48% compared to a build up of 3.61% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The movement of the index for the various commodity groups is summarized below:-
PRIMARY ARTICLES (Weight 20.12%)
The index for this major group rose by 0.3 percent to 219.5 (Provisional) from 218.8 (Provisional) for the previous month. The groups and items for which the index showed variations during the month are as follows:-
The index for `Food Articles` group declined by 0.4 percent to 211.4 (Provisional) from 212.2 (Provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of fruits & vegetables (5%), poultry chicken (4%), fish-marine (2%) and milk (1%). However, the prices of arhar (8%), ragi(7%), gram and urad (6% each), moong, coffee and wheat (5% each), bajra, condiments & spices and masur (4% each), egg, tea and fish-inland (3% each), jowar, maize and rice (2 % each) and mutton and barley (1% each) moved up.
The index for `Non-Food Articles` group rose by 3.8 percent to 206.8 (Provisional) from 199.2 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of castor seed (15%), raw silk (14%), gingelly seed (12%), coir fibre (11%), rape & mustard seed (9%), cotton seed and linseed (7% each), niger seed and flowers (6%), soyabean (5%), fodder, groundnut seed and sugarcane (4% each), guar seed, logs & timber and raw cotton (3% each), raw jute (2%) and sunflower (1%). However, the prices of raw rubber (6%), copra (coconut) and mesta (2% each) declined.
The index for `Minerals` group declined by 1.3 percent to 331.3 (Provisional) from 335.8 (Provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of sillimanite (13%), copper ore (9%), magnesite (7%), zinc concentrate and crude petroleum (3% each), steatite (2%) andchromite (1%). However, the prices of phosphorite (23%), iron ore (4 %) and barytes (1%) moved up.
FUEL & POWER (Weight 14.91%)
The index for this major group rose by 3.1 percent to 181.0 (Provisional) from 175.5 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of electricity (agricultural) (23%), electricity (industry) (11%), electricity (domestic) (9 %), electricity (railway traction) (8%), light diesel oil (7%), electricity (commercial) and naphtha (6%each), aviation turbine fuel (5%), furnace oil (4%), kerosene (2%) and petrol (1%).
MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS (Weight 64.97%)
The index for this major group rose by 0.8 percent to 146.9 (Provisional) from 145.7 (Provisional) for the previous month. The groups and items for which the index showed variations during the month are as follows:-
The index for `Food Products` group rose by 3.0 percent to 164.5 (Provisional) from 159.7 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of sugar (8%), oil cakes and gur (6% each), gram powder (besan), sooji (rawa) and gingelly oil (5% each), wheat flour (atta),khandsari and cotton seed oil (4% each), tea dust (unblended) and maida (3% each), mustard & rapeseed oil, vanaspati and mixed spices (2% each) and gola (cattle feed), groundnut oil, soyabean oil, bakery products, processed prawn and ghee (1% each). However, the prices of tea leaf (unblended) (1%) declined.
The index for `Textiles` group rose by 0.2 percent to 130.4 (Provisional) from 130.1 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of man-made fibre, jute yarn and cotton fabric (1% each).
The index for `Wood & Wood Products` group rose by 0.3 percent to 169.6 (Provisional) from 169.1 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of processed wood (1%).
The index for `Paper & Paper Products` group rose by 0.5 percent to 135.2 (Provisional) from 134.5 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of paper cartons / boxes (6%), newspaper (2%) and paper rolls (1%). However, the prices of computer stationery (2%) and newsprint (1%) declined.
The index for `Leather & Leather Products` group rose by 0.4 percent to 134.2 (Provisional) from 133.7 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of leathers (1%).
The index for `Rubber & Plastic Products` group rose by 0.7 percent to 136.9 (Provisional) from 135.9 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of plastic products and rubber products (1% each).
The index for `Chemicals & Chemical Products` group rose by 0.6 percent to 143.2 (Provisional) from 142.3 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of di ammonium phosphate (3%), pigment & pigment intermediates and organic manure (2% each) and synthetic resin, paints, non-cyclic compound, basic organic chemicals, adhesive & gum, ammonium sulphate, basic inorganic chemicals, safety matches/ match box and antibiotics (1% each). However, the prices of rubber chemicals and distemper (2% each) and polymers (1%) declined.
The index for `Non-Metallic Mineral Products` group rose by 1.1 percent to 164.2 (Provisional) from 162.4 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of railway sleeper (3%), grey cement (2%) and white cement and polished granite (1% each). However, the prices of glass bottles & bottleware (1%) declined.
The index for `Basic Metals, Alloys & Metal Products` group rose by 0.1 percent to 166.6 (Provisional) from 166.4 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of gold & gold ornaments (3%), ferro chrome (2%) and nuts/bolts/screw/ washers, steel: pipes & tubes, ferro manganese, zinc and aluminium (1% each). However, the prices of sponge iron (3%), pencil ingots (2%) and wire rods, melting scrap, gp/gc sheets, pig iron, copper products (other than wire) and rounds (1% each) declined.
The index for `Machinery & Machine Tools` group rose by 0.2 percent to 128.1 (Provisional) from 127.9 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of conductor (6%), lamps, fans and material handling equipments (3% each), harvester, ups / stabilizer, fibre optic cable and electric switches (2% each) and insulators, electrical wires, electric switch gears, air conditioner & refrigerators, capacitors, thresher and plastic machinery (1 % each).
The index for `Transport, Equipment & Parts` group rose by 0.6 percent to 129.3 (Provisional) from 128.5 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of auto rickshaw / tempo / matador (3%), tractors (2%) and parts of ships/boats etc., bus / mini bus / truck and motor cycle / scooter / moped (1% each).
FINAL INDEX FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE , 2012 (BASE YEAR: 2004-05=100)
For the month of June, 2012, the final Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2004-05=100) stood at 164.7as comparedto 164.2 (provisional) and annual rate of inflation based on final index stood at 7.58 percent as compared to 7.25 percent respectively as reported on 16.07.2012.
Livestock Census of 15 species to be completed in 30 days
Livestock Census is conducted all over the country through Department of Animal Husbandry of respective States/Union Territories from 15.09.2012 to 15.10.2012 with reference date as 15.10.2012 except in Jammu & Kashmir and Sikkim, wherein the reference dates are 30th October 2012 and 30th November 2012 respectively. The 15 species of livestock and poultry birds of this country will be completely enumerated during the period. Suitable statistical methods are adopted to report the livestock and poultry of the country on the date of reference. Livestock census will help in formulating policies for requisite infrastructure in States/UTs for improving productivity of livestock sector; promoting infrastructure for handling, processing and marketing milk and milk products; preservation and protection of livestock through provision of health care; and strengthening of efforts for development of superior germplasm for distribution.
About 2 lakhs personnel will be involved in actual data collection. Urgent measures are being taken up by all States/Union Territories to start enumeration work in time. Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture, and Government of India is providing uniform methodology and necessary financial assistance to all States/Union Territories to conduct livestock census.
About 2 lakhs personnel will be involved in actual data collection. Urgent measures are being taken up by all States/Union Territories to start enumeration work in time. Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture, and Government of India is providing uniform methodology and necessary financial assistance to all States/Union Territories to conduct livestock census.
Diesel Price Increased by Rs 5 per litre; Subsidized Domestic LPG Cylinders restricted to 6 in a year
The Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister to consider the disturbing situation arising out of projected massive under-recoveries of Rs. 1,87,127 crore for the financial year 2012-13 in the wake of high international crude oil prices and sharp depreciation of Indian rupee against US dollar took the following decisions to be implemented with effect from the midnight of 13/14 September 2012 :
a) Increase in price of diesel by Rs. 5 per litre excluding VAT. Out of this, Rs. 1.50 per litre is on account of increase in Excise Duty. The balance increase of Rs. 3.50 per litre will reduce the under-recovery of OMCs by about Rs. 15,000 crore for the remaining part of the current financial year. The under-recovery on sale of diesel during 2012-13, even after this price hike, is estimated to be above Rs. 1,03,000 crore. The revised RSP of diesel in Delhi will be approximately Rs 47 per litre. Further, branded diesel will be sold at the market rate.
b) No increase in the price of petrol, although the current under-recovery on petrol is about Rs 6 per litre. The consequent loss to the OMCs will be offset through reduction in excise duty on petrol by Rs 5.30 per litre.
c) Restrict the supply of subsidized LPG cylinders to each consumer to 6cylinders (of 14.2 Kg) per annum. This will help in reducing the under-recovery by about Rs. 5,300 crore for the remaining part of the financial year. The under-recovery on sale of Domestic LPG during 2012-13, even after this measure, is estimated to be above Rs. 32,000 crore. Any number of cylinders will be available over and above the cap of 6 cylinders at market rate. The number of subsidized LPG cylinders available to each consumer in the remaining part of the current financial year will be 3 cylinders. While subsidized cylinders will continue to be available at Rs. 399 per cylinder (at Delhi), the market rate of LPG cylinders at non subsidized rates will be notified by the OMCs on monthly basis.
d) No increase in the price of PDS Kerosene which is currently Rs. 14.83 per litre (at Delhi). The under-recovery of the OMCs on sale of Kerosene during 2012-13 will continue to be about Rs.32,000 crore.
It may be recalled that the Department Related Parliamentary Standing Committee on Petroleum & Natural Gas (which has members from all Political Parties) made recommendation on capping of subsidized LPG cylinders to 6 per annum.
The effect of capping supply of subsidized LPG cylinders at six per annum will lead to saving of subsidy on one third of the total LPG cylinders. Two third of the total cylinders will still be supplied at subsidized rate. About 44% of the total Domestic LPG consumers, who consume 6 cylinders or less per annum, will not be affected by this decision. Capping of cylinders will also lead to reduction in misuse/diversion of subsidized cylinders.
The above decisions will reduce the under-recovery of OMCs by about Rs. 20,300 crore and the under-recovery for 2012-13 will be about Rs. 1,67,000 crore which is more than the under-recovery of Rs. 1,38,541 crore incurred by OMCs during 2011-12.
September 8, 2012
All India Sowing Report
According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, rice has been sown in 356.07 lakh hectares, as compared to 347.10 lakh hectares, a week back. Normal area under rice for this week is 344.69 lakh hectares.
The cropped areas of major Kharif crops as 07th September 2012 as compared to last week and the normal area for this week are as follows:
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